Last NBA season I decided to bet on the winning margin of the points by which a team wins the match. For each team the betting houses offer several possibilities for a margin between the winning team and its opponent, so the punter must choose the correct one.
My idea was to do it based on the pure statistics. The principle is very simple. I made an excel sheet where I wrote the match, the odds for both teams and the margin by which the winner won. When I accumulated a sufficient number of matches with their odds and winning margin I got a betting database by which I searched for value bet with one percent of my bankroll.
At first glance this betting system looked very promising as I had bets with odds of 40 and even higher. However, it was promising only at the beginning. On my first 100 bet only two or three were winnings as it led to almost completely emptying my bank.
At least ten times the success eluded in the final seconds. Often the difference between my bet and what was actually the winning margin was only one point higher or lower.
This unexpected loss did not get me discouraged. I’ll try again with this betting system next season, this time with some changes. Playing with high odds of about 20, 30 or even 40 requires a little more insight into the details. For example, when you have a winning margin with odds of 40 it gives you a fake value in the next at least 39 attempts, which distorts the actual results.
So I decided for the next year to bet only on margins that have already at least 5 winnings and bearing value. This will guarantee me that I will not have a loss when only an occasional success changes significantly the value due to its high rate.
I am convinced that there is value in betting on winning margin of NBA games and it only needs to a more detailed study with a larger database to give more accurate results.